What Happened at the November 17, 2025 Oral Argument

The Second Circuit panel — consisting of three federal appellate judges — heard approximately 90 minutes of argument in New York on November 17, 2025. The central question was whether Judge Denise Cote's August 2024 Daubert ruling, excluding all of plaintiffs' general causation expert witnesses, was a proper exercise of the district court's gatekeeping function — or whether it went too far, effectively substituting the judge's scientific judgment for that of qualified experts applying accepted methodology. Legal observers present at the argument reported that two of the three judges asked pointed, skeptical questions of the defense: one judge asked whether the exclusion of all experts in an MDL — without permitting any individual case-specific evidence to proceed — was consistent with Supreme Court precedent; another questioned whether the methodological concerns cited by Judge Cote were genuine Daubert failures or simply disagreements about the weight of the evidence, which is properly left to juries. Oral argument questions are not votes — but the appellate panel's visible skepticism of the MDL-wide dismissal is a meaningful signal.

What a Second Circuit Reversal Would Mean

If the Second Circuit reverses Judge Cote's ruling — even partially — it could reinstate the federal MDL, require new Daubert hearings with revised expert presentations, or remand individual cases for case-specific proceedings. A full reversal reinstating the MDL would give thousands of dismissed plaintiffs the opportunity to re-file and proceed in federal court. Even a partial reversal — reinstating only certain expert theories or allowing case-specific evidence — would be a significant development. In either scenario, the number of new filings would surge, and firms that have already evaluated and enrolled clients will be best positioned to move quickly. A ruling is expected within 6 to 12 months of the November 2025 argument — meaning late 2026 is the most likely window.

What If the Second Circuit Affirms the Dismissal?

Even if the Second Circuit affirms MDL-3043's dismissal, state court litigation in California and Illinois continues independently. State courts are not bound by the Second Circuit's ruling, and they apply their own admissibility standards. The Frye standard in California and Illinois does not require the same level of methodological scrutiny as Daubert. An affirmance would be a setback for federal plaintiffs but would not close state court doors. It would also not affect minority-tolled claims for children who have not yet turned 18 — those claims may remain viable in state court for years. The most important action for families is to consult an attorney now, regardless of the appellate outcome.